Montserrat vs Turks and Caicos Islands predictions — CONCACAF Nations League, 6 Oct

Model's headline prediction

Recency-weighted xG points to a high-scoring fixture. Montserrat have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 home games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 per game. Turks and Caicos Islands have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game.